The United Nations has proclaimed 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology.
The aim is to recognise “the importance of quantum science and the need for greater awareness of its past and future impact”.
But why quantum? Why now?
Quantum science is both complex and strange.
It is not easy to understand concepts such as tanglelight existing as both a wave and a particle, or a cat in a box which is both alive and dead (until observed).
The weirdness of quantum mechanics is now being channeled into the construction of the first quantum computers, the first communications systems, and the first sensors.
In the longer term, this could power the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI).
We are at the beginning of a costly and resource-intensive quantum race between global powers.
The competition for quantum leadership is likely to play a major role in shaping Australia’s economic and national security policy for decades to come.
Follow the money
Tech giants, major powers and top research universities are all racing to build the first commercially viable quantum systems.
Although opinions differ as to whether the quantum race is a marathon or a sprint, big bets have already been placed.
By 2045, CSIRO estimates show that Australia’s quantum industry could generate up to $6 billion in annual revenue and provide nearly 20,000 jobs.
In 2023, Australia outlined its National Quantum Strategy to strengthen government support and make Australia “a leader in the global quantum industry”.
Over the past two years, the Victorian Government has invested $37 million in quantum startups.
In April, the Commonwealth and Queensland governments committed to jointly investing $1 billion to build the world’s first large-scale quantum computer.
The same month, the University of Sydney received an $18.4 million federal grant to establish a national centre for the quantum ecosystem in Australia.
But understanding the quantum question is about much more than science and technology, or dollars and cents.
As with almost all powerful new technologies, the question is not if, but when, the next quantum wave will be weaponized.
Quantum science in the service of national security
Based on entangled quantum bits (“qubits”), quantum technology has the potential to exponentially increase computing power, transform communications networks, and optimize the flow of goods, resources, and money.
Commercial industries as diverse as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, banking and mining – of both data and minerals – will all be transformed.
Close-up of a silicon photonic wafer. Photo: Psi Quantum / Supplied
However, it is the national security implications of quantum technology that are of most interest to our government and other countries around the world.
Quantum radars, codes, the Internet, sensors and GPS are being accelerated by militaries and defense industries in every corner of the world.
Whoever gets there first (the quantum “haves”) could produce new power asymmetries and dangers for the others (the quantum “have-nots”).
Quantum communication systems can provide completely secure and tamper-proof communication lines.
A prototype network is already being connected several major cities over nearly 5,000 km in China.
On the other hand, quantum computers pose the risk that they could eventually crack classically encrypted messages in seconds – an eventuality known as “Q-Day.”
Quantum AI is being developed to improve the performance of deadly autonomous weapons.
Do we really want to see swarms of drones operating in a networked battlespace without any human intervention?
Quantum sensors, already in use today, are capable of making ultra-sensitive measurements of magnetic and gravitational fields.
This involves accurately locating metals and large objects underground as well as underwater.
Further advances in quantum sensing technology would have serious implications for the resilience and reliability of Australia’s new nuclear submarine fleet.
This is an important consideration for the largest military investment in our nation’s history.
We need to ask the hard questions now
Almost every complex new technology has generated unintended consequences – and unexpected disasters.
Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and Fukushima all testify to the risks inherent in a previous wave of nuclear technologies resulting from advances in quantum science.
Given the potential speed and network power of quantum machine learning and cloud computing, a problem in quantum artificial intelligence could start as a local incident but quickly escalate into a global crisis.
The blockbuster film Oppenheimer showed how an earlier wave of quantum research led to the discovery of the atomic bomb and forever changed the international order.
The first use of nuclear weapons also sparked a profound and engaged global debate about disarmament, led by many of the scientists who had helped build the bomb.
But their voices were drowned out by the politics of fear and the Cold War, resulting in a costly arms race and nuclear brinkmanship that continues to this day.
Asked about President Lyndon Johnson’s efforts to launch arms control negotiations in the 1960s, Oppenheimer replied: “It’s 20 years too late – it should have been done the day after Trinity.” [the first nuclear detonation].”
It would be best not to wait to start asking the tough questions about how the next generation of quantum technologies will impact the prospects for global war and peace in the years to come.
James Der Derian is Michael Hintze Professor of International Security and Director of the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney.
Stuart Rollo is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Centre for International Security Studies, University of Sydney.
This article is republished from The conversation under Creative Commons license. Read the original here.