The United Nations proclaimed 2025 as the year International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. The goal is to recognize “the importance of quantum science and the need for greater awareness of its past and future impact.” But why quantum science? Why now?
Quantum science is both complex and strange. It is not easy to understand concepts such as tanglelight existing as both a wave and a particle, or a cat in a box which is both alive and dead (until observed).
The strangeness of quantum mechanics is now channeled into the construction of the first quantum computerscommunication systems and sensors. In the longer term, it could power the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI).
We are in the early stages of a costly and resource-intensive quantum technology race among global powers. The competition for quantum leadership is likely to play a major role in shaping Australia’s economic and national security policy for decades to come.
Follow the money
Tech giants, major powers, and top research universities are racing to build the first commercially viable quantum systems. While opinions differ on whether the quantum race is a marathon or a sprint, big bets have already been placed.
By 2045, CSIRO estimates show Australia’s quantum industry could generate up to A$6 billion in annual revenue and provide nearly 20,000 jobs.
In 2023, Australia established its national quantum strategy to strengthen government support and make Australia “a leader in the global quantum industry”.
Over the past two years, the Victorian Government has invested $37 million in quantum startupsIn April, the Commonwealth and Queensland governments committed to a Joint investment of $1 billion to build the world’s first large-scale quantum computer. In the same month, the University of Sydney received a prize of $18.4 million federal grant to establish a national centre for the quantum ecosystem in Australia.
But understanding the quantum question is not just a matter of science and technology, or dollars and cents. As with almost all powerful new technologies, the question is not if the next quantum wave will be weaponized, but when.
Quantum science in the service of national security
Based on entangled quantum bits (“qubits”), quantum technology has the potential to exponentially increase computing power, transform communications networks, and optimize the flow of goods, resources, and money.
Commercial industries as diverse as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, banking and mining – of both data and minerals – will all be transformed.
However, it is the national security implications of quantum technology that are of most interest to our government and other countries around the world.
Quantum radar, codes, the internet, sensors, and GPS are all booming in militaries and defense industries around the world. Those who get there first (those who “have” quantum) could produce new power asymmetries and dangers for the rest (those who “don’t”).
Quantum communication systems can provide completely secure and tamper-proof communication lines. A prototype network is already being connected several major cities over nearly 5,000 km in China. On the other hand, quantum computers pose the risk of potentially being able to crack classically encrypted messages in seconds – a possibility known as “Q Day“.
Quantum AI is being developed to improve the performance of deadly autonomous weaponsDo we really want to see swarms of drones operating in a networked battlespace without any human intervention?
Quantum sensors, already used todayare capable of making ultra-sensitive measurements of magnetic and gravitational fields. This means they can accurately locate metals and large objects underground and underwater.
New advances in quantum sensing technology could have serious consequences for resilience and reliability of Australia’s new nuclear submarine fleet. This is an important consideration for the The largest military investment in the history of our nation.
We need to ask the hard questions now
Almost every complex new technology has generated unintended consequences – and unexpected disasters. Chernobyl, Three Mile Island And Fukushima All of which bear witness to the risks inherent in a previous wave of nuclear technologies resulting from advances in quantum science.
Given the potential speed and network power of quantum machine learning and cloud computing, a problem in quantum artificial intelligence could start as a local incident but quickly escalate into a global crisis.
The hit film Oppenheimer showed how a first wave of quantum research enabled the manufacture of the atomic bomb and changed the international order forever.
The first use of nuclear weapons also sparked a deep and engaged global debate about disarmament, led by many of the scientists who had helped build the bomb. But their voices were drowned out by the politics of fear and the Cold War, leading to a costly arms race and brinkmanship that wreaked havoc around the world. continues to this day.
Asked about President Lyndon Johnson’s efforts to initiate arms control negotiations in the 1960s, Oppenheimer replied:
It’s twenty years too late – it should have been done the day after Trinity [the first nuclear detonation].
It would be best not to wait to start asking the tough questions about how the next generation of quantum technologies will impact the prospects for global war and peace in the years to come.
James Der DerianMichael Hintze Chair of International Security, University of Sydney And Stuart RolloPostdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Sydney
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