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TOKYO — A Russian satellite likely suffered a “low-intensity explosion” that created hundreds of pieces of debris in low Earth orbit, according to a company analysis.
U.S. Space Command and private space data providers reported that Resurs P1, a decommissioned Russian remote-sensing satellite, broke up on June 26. The event created more than 100 pieces of debris that could be tracked by ground-based sensors.
The cause of the breakup remains unclear, but LeoLabs, which was the first to publicly report the event, believes that a “low-intensity explosion,” either from a collision or within the spacecraft itself, created the debris. That explosion created at least 250 pieces of debris at altitudes of up to 500 kilometers.
This conclusion comes from the company’s analysis of the debris cloud, which used its own tools to examine the amount of debris distributed in order to better understand what created it.
“Although much of the debris cloud has yet to be fully analyzed, our preliminary assessment concludes that the most likely cause of the event is a low-intensity explosion,” LeoLabs concluded in a July 3 statement posted on LinkedIn“This explosion could have been triggered by external stimuli such as the impact of a small fragment (not currently listed) or an internal structural failure leading to a failure of the propulsion system.”
This analysis excludes speculation that the satellite could have been used as a target for an anti-satellite weapons test, similar to Cosmos 1408 in November 2021. There were no other indications, such as statements from the Russian or US military or airspace restrictions, that such a test was planned or carried out.
The explosion does not appear to have completely destroyed the satellite itself. Optical observations of Resurs P by Sybilla Technologies, a Polish space situation monitoring company, reports that the main satellite is still thererotating with a period of two to three seconds.
Images taken before the disintegration by HEO, an Australian company that uses commercial satellites to image other space objects, show that the solar panels of Resurs P1 and the two other spacecraft, P2 and P3, failed to fully deployIt is unclear whether this deployment malfunction is in any way related to the rupture.
While fragmentation may not seem like a worst-case scenario, it still poses a danger to other satellites in low orbit. According to LeoLabs, the altitude of some of the debris causes it to pass through the orbits used by many other operational satellites as well as the International Space Station and China’s Tiangong space station. These objects will likely remain in orbit for “weeks or months” before atmospheric drag causes them to disintegrate.
“This event demonstrates the ongoing risk posed by decommissioned spacecraft in orbit,” the company concluded. Resurs P1 was decommissioned in 2021 and will reenter the atmosphere later this year as its orbit, currently about 355 kilometers, decays.
This is not the only case, LeoLabs added. “There are over 2,500 long-term intact abandoned assets (i.e. abandoned rocket bodies and non-operational payloads) that could suffer a similar fate to Resurs P1 over time.”